Scintillant Capital is a blogging and sharing website aimed at exchanging ideas for value investing in the Indian listed equity space.
Investment opportunities matching the principles of value investing, enumerated herewith, shall be proposed and critical opinions and analyses from the visitors to the website are invited.
Fresh ideas in the adjacent areas not proposed here, are welcome.
Happy Equity Value Investing!
The purpose of the website is only to propose and invite opinions & analyses on the ideas proposed, for a healthy exchange. scintillantcapital.com, and the owner(s), do not intend to recommend investment ideas or equity portfolio decisions to individuals, explicitly the visitors of the website.
scintillantcapital.com and the owner(s), aren't SEBI registered.
Individuals should not take any discussion on the website as a recommendation to invest or otherwise. Visitors of the website should not forward, edited portions of the website or images, which could lead to misinterpretation of the opinions & analyses. This blogging & sharing website is primarily targeted at individuals who have atleast a fair understanding of value investing in the equity space, others should refrain from taking opinions as recommendations to invest.
A 3 - 5x bagger is sought. (An “x” invested should provide atleast a 3x bagger, that is 200% return. Similarly, a 5x bagger provides a 400% return)
A 3-5 year period is proposed. It is difficult to build in a multi bagger in a period of less than 3 years. Also a multi bagger in a period in excess of 5 years, is ridden relatively with larger risk, and hence not sought.
Therefore, the return range translates into a lowest CAGR of 25% (3x in 5y) and a highest CAGR of 71% (5x in 3y). Hence, a long term portfolio return of 35% should be possible, if most of the proposals turn out right.
Only those sectors, with previous experience of having worked in, or analyzed, or atleast having a good prior understanding, are chosen.
Following are the sectors chosen currently, more could be added at a later date - Renewable Energy, Chemicals & Speciality chemicals, Agrochemicals & Allied, Real Estate, Building Materials (Wood panel, Tiles & Sanitary ware, Plastic pipes, Cables & Wires), Digital platforms, Aviation, Natural Gas & LNG, EPCs (Road, Water, Building Construction, Shipyard and Shipbuilding etc.), Auto & Ancillaries and Secondary metals (Pipes, Forging, Casting, Recycling etc.).
Agnostic to market capitalization zones, however considering the proposed multi-bagging range, most ideas are likely to be from the small capitalization zone, largely, and somewhat in the mid capitalization zone or commodity cycle followers.
Quality of management decisions, levels of debt and corporate governance standards are matters of debate and therefore salient discussion points. Most of these factors are based on past 10 year financial performance track records.
Highest level of importance assigned to (A) 10 year average equity returns (RoE%) and (B) 10 year average top line growth (SG%) – or volume growth (say tonnage), wherever commodity prices wildly fluctuate. A high (A) beating the cost of capital by a wide margin is respected the most. However, a moderate (A) with a high (B) is almost equally respected. Wherever, 10 year track record is not available, a 5 year or a 3 year track record is taken, but that would be a compromise.
Although low levels of net debt are preferred, high levels of net debt are generally ignored if there is a possibility to get comfortable within the next 3-5 years.
Market Capitalization by Sales ratio, for a general assessment of valuation preferred.
Future prospects for the entity, regulatory and policy changes, fundamental shifts in the sector, market growth and entity expansion plans are studied to assess the prospects for the next 5 year performance vis-à-vis, the past 5-10 years.
Bhalachandra Nayak has over 25 years of investing experience in the Indian stock markets mostly as a passive investor. Over the past 8 years he has leaned towards active value investing, managing his own portfolio.
He has a wide experience in various sectors having worked with Lupin, Avalon Consulting, CRISIL and Aditya Birla Group after graduating from IIT Kharagpur (1992) and IIM Ahmedabad (1994)
Although multiple sources of information for equity research are used in the course of equity research, the following publicly available sources of information are tapped and recommended for use for other equity value investors too.
and others
Feel free to post fresh ideas not covered here at bhalachandra.nayak@scintillantcapital.com mention 'fresh ideas' in the subject line.
Investment opportunities matching the principles of value investing, enumerated earlier, are proposed sequentially below. The proposed 3-5x multibagger investment opportunity, in 3-5 years, are suggested only at the 'Ideal entry price' which is prevalent around the mentioned date.
Investors should not take any discussion on the website as a recommendation to invest or otherwise. Visitors of the website should not forward edited portions of the website or images, which could lead to misinterpretation of the opinions & analyses.
Idea # 101 : Prince Pipes & Fittings (18th February 2020)
Ideal entry price : 100-120
Detailed evaluation chart below. Do provide you feedback and opinion on this investment opportunity at bhalachandra.nayak@scintillantcapital.com mention 'Idea # 101 : Prince Pipes' in the subject line.
5x target was met in May 2021
Idea # 102 : Bhansali Engineering Polymers (23rd August 2020)
Ideal entry price : 38-40
Detailed evaluation chart below. Do provide you feedback and opinion on this investment opportunity at bhalachandra.nayak@scintillantcapital.com mention 'Idea # 102 : Bhansali Engineering' in the subject line.
5x target was met in October 2021
Idea # 103 : Indo Amines (23rd December 2020)
Ideal entry price : 50-60
Detailed evaluation chart below. Do provide you feedback and opinion on this investment opportunity at bhalachandra.nayak@scintillantcapital.com mention 'Idea # 103 : Indo Amines' in the subject line.
5x target was met in July 2021
Of all the books that I have read, the one having the most influence on my style of investing and quite a simple read is “One up on Wall Street” by Peter Lynch.
Peter Lynch believes in investing with a multi-bagging objective and not just the regular low 2-digit annual growth. He believes that such returns come from relatively unheard stocks, from industries that are generally not discussed in the media or by the analysts. Some of these stocks are from products & industries all around us and we need an ‘openness of our mind’, and ‘constantly at it’ kind of an approach for them to be discovered.
Some of the quick learns from the book are summarized below:
*** A perfect stock for Peter Lynch, is one or more of the following
*** Stocks to avoid for Peter Lynch, are
*** Some of the other takeaways from the book are
*** Peter Lynch considers Futures & Options and Technical analysis are some areas of distraction for long term investors and therefore need to avoid them.
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